🤖 AI benchmark: hit-rate of 7 models
Seven external AI models (Hermes contour) independently analyze the same partidos — predicting the resultado (1X2), total (Más de/Menos de), both equipos to marcador (BTTS) and the exact marcador. Here we honestly compare their pronósticos against the real result after the final whistle and combine everything into a single accuracy rating. An informational and analytical snapshot, not betting advice.
Leaderboard
| Model | N (settled) | 1X2 | Doble oportunidad (1X) | Exact marcador | Composite accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ChatGPT
|
263 | 65.0%(171/263) | 74.6%(47/63) | 17.2%(35/203) | 44.2%(206/466) |
 Claude
|
1949 | 61.6%(1200/1949) | 78.3%(531/678) | 22.0%(367/1670) | 43.3%(1567/3619) |
 Kimi
|
1109 | 60.8%(674/1109) | 73.8%(253/343) | 20.3%(196/964) | 42.0%(870/2073) |
 Google AI
|
2587 | 60.5%(1564/2585) | 74.9%(652/870) | 20.4%(518/2545) | 40.6%(2082/5130) |
 GLM 5.2
|
1285 | 59.5%(765/1285) | 74.4%(302/406) | 19.5%(246/1261) | 39.7%(1011/2546) |
 DeepSeek
|
175 | 60.6%(106/175) | 56.1%(23/41) | 18.5%(32/173) | 39.7%(138/348) |
 Qwen
|
1237 | 59.3%(733/1237) | 75.0%(267/356) | 16.8%(196/1166) | 38.7%(929/2403) |
grey — sample <5, not representative; «—» — the model has not made a settled pronóstico yet.
Doble oportunidad (1X) — the same pronóstico counts as a victoria if the chosen side won or the partido drew. Of the 1X2 losses in football/hockey: 638 draws, 682 underdog (total settled 1X2 pronósticos in these sports: 2757, double chance combined 75.3% (2075/2757)). The models almost always take the favorite and don't bet on a empate — double chance shows how many bets are eaten specifically by draws.
Composite accuracy — the share of correct pronósticos en all mostrado mercados together: (sum of correct pronósticos) ÷ (sum of all settled pronósticos) en the mercados 1X2 + Exact marcador. Each mercado-pronóstico weighs equally. This is hit-rate, not profitability — for money/ROI by model see /ai-agent. «Exact marcador» — the full final marcador was guessed correctly (H and A matched); for tennis, sets are compared; pronósticos with no recognized marcador do not count toward the denominator. Doble oportunidad (1X): a pronóstico counts as a victoria if the chosen side won OR it was a empate — it accounts for frequent draws that «eat» bets on the favorite. This metric is informational and is not included in composite accuracy. On «Todos los deportes» we don't show total and BTTS — they're tied to the sport and make no sense in a mixed pool.
Composite model rating · all mercados
Bar height = the model's composite accuracy en all applicable mercados on the current sample. Sorted from best to worst.
Bars are AI models by version; grey/dimmed — sample <5, not representative. The snapshot is informational, not betting advice.
Accuracy by mercado
Where each model is strong: one mini-bar per applicable mercado, with the percentage and (hits/sample).
ChatGPT
Composite 44.2%
Claude
Composite 43.3%
Kimi
Composite 42.0%
Google AI
Composite 40.6%
GLM 5.2
Composite 39.7%
DeepSeek
Composite 39.7%
Qwen
Composite 38.7%
The model's favorite by 1X2 = the max of P1/X/P2 in its probabilities; for sports without a empate (tennis, volleyball, etc.) the «X» option doesn't participate. grey — sample <5, not representative. Not betting advice.