Closing-price value

Sample from 2026-07-07 07:38 to 2026-08-07 10:39 UTC. Both chronological halves are mostrado because a figure that only works in one of them is not a finding.

The figure is close to identical en sports. That breadth is the reason we publish one aggregate number instead of promoting the best-looking slice: of 36 subsets we declared in advance, none beat the aggregate reliably.

If you act on these, use a flat stake. We publish no confianza tiers, because we have no evidence that any subset of these signals is stronger than the rest.

• The closing price comes from an append-only snapshot table recorded strictly 2–180 minutes before kick-off. We never read it from our live cuotas table, which is overwritten as a partido progresses.
• Our quote is compared to the same casa de apuestas's close. Comparing en casas would measure their divergencia, not our timing.
• Standard errors are clustered by partido. One fixture can produce several signals, and treating those as independent would overstate certainty several times over.
• Partidos whose result was recorded before the nominal kick-off are excluded, because either the time or the result attribution is wrong.
• An hourly check re-tests every threshold. If cobertura drops, either half turns negative, the rolling window turns negative, or the recorder stalls, the figure above is withdrawn automatically rather than left standing.